INTERNATIONAL. MEA Risk has published its latest assessments of stability and security in North Africa.
Libya: Daesh Growing in Libya, but Airstrikes May be Pushing Militants toward the Sahel
Concern over Libya has increased substantially recently with militants transferring from the heated battlefields of the Middle East to North Africa. The doubling of combatants flowing into Libya has raised concern that the region is the next hotspot picked by the Islamic State to expand its operations. The various international meetings on Libya that have taken place lately highlight a sense of urgency among neighboring countries, western powers, in particular nearby Europe, but also the United States and Russia as to preventing the Islamic State organization (Daesh) from establishing a wider front in North Africa. Daesh is turning out to be more resilient and harder to defeat and any strengthening of its presence in Libya will mean that has now taken its fight to Africa. The report is an update on the ongoing crisis in Libya. Continue here: http://bit.ly/1oI9rF3
Europe’s Radicalized Muslim Population
Europe’s integration policies related to its immigrants have been less than effective in stemming the rise of extremism. Decades of misconceived immigration strategies have led to the rise of radical movements, to the point now that new measures to strip the nationality for those with dual citizenship adds fuel to the fire. The debate over the stripping of French nationality to criminal or terror elements in France expanded recently with the release of a report by the French Interior Ministry showing the number of individuals it considers radicalized and “susceptible of launching a terror attack at any moment.” http://bit.ly/1QjTfpP
Egypt Jeopardizes Tourism and FDI Recovery with Disruptive Policies
The sustained attacks by IS and other insurgents against tourist targets in Egypt have had a severe dampening effect on the broad tourism industry there and have led to a major flight of foreign investors. However, the actions of the authorities themselves do not bode well for any industry recovery in the foreseeable future. The most visible example of an overzealous Egyptian security services was the accidental killing of eight Mexican tourists last year. But there are also low-key incidents that do not often make it to front pages. Most recently, we noted the arrest of a Turkish tourist in Giza. The man was arrested for taking photos near the famed Giza pyramids, with the authorities accusing him of focusing too much on photographing the police. http://bit.ly/217T4PT
Tunisia Security Update
Tunisia is facing a multi-faceted crisis, top of which is the ongoing unemployment protests that highlight the weakening of the Tunisian economic systems and a reduction in social safety nets. With social tension at its peak, the threat of radical militants from within and from Libya can overwhelm the government of Tunisia relatively quickly if a political solution to broad social and economic problems are not put forward.
For the period of February 01, 2016 to February 07, 2016, there were 45 critical incidents in Tunisia, resulting in 10 deaths, 1 wounded, and 67 arrests. As a result, the CIncidents Index for the period was 2.02, reflecting the high-risk zone for the country. Security & Defense operations accounted for 28.89% of the total pool of incidents, while Terrorism shrank to only 2.22%. Human & Social Crises took in the brunt of the destabilizing incidents, accounting for nearly half of all incident pools. Click here: http://bit.ly/1R76LtG
Egypt Security Update
For the period of February 1, 2016 to February 7, 2016, Egypt witnessed 61 critical incidents, resulting in 63 deaths, 50 wounded, and 107 arrests. As a result, the Incidents Index for the period was 2.15, positioning the country as an extreme high-risk zone. The share of human & social-related incidents reached 47.54% of all the combined pool of incidents highlighting how governance problems and insecurity are affecting the country’s social environment.
Security & defense-related events accounted for 16.39% and Terrorism accounted for 9.84%. The country’s problems have been essentially the same over the previous period, but this week we noticed a spike in militant activity claiming the lives of many security officers and troops. Civilians in the North Sinai region continued to be the target of attacks from both the military and insurgents, as 10 civilians lost their lives in the Rafah region due to the ongoing conflict pitting militants aligned with IS with the Egyptian military. Click here: http://bit.ly/1KViP1X
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